Trump, Brexit and ISIS are the symptoms, and technology is the problem

The world seems to be going mad with division. Religious fundamentalism versus the modern world. Nationalism versus openness. Old versus young. Us versus them. In each case, a group that used to have the upper hand is now angrily despondent at its place in society and future prospects.

In the Middle East, cynical leaders are taking advantage of the desperation and deep sense of insecurity in unemployed young men who are struggling to find a place of belonging and a source of pride. In Britain, racism and bigotry are flourishing spectacularly as the older generation seeks a scapegoat for their growing irrelevance in the modern, globalized economy. In the U.S., what was once a great political party has become an unrecognizable collection of resentments and prejudices.

This has been a steaming kettle for years, but is now peaking with the rise of political phenomenon that threaten to upend the progress of our civilization. If we dig a layer deeper to try to understand the real cause, it becomes clear that technology advancement is the real culprit.

The Agricultural Revolutions swept through different regions at different times and took hundreds of years to fully transform society. The First and Second Industrial Revolutions truly changed the standard of living in a period spanning more than 150 years. The Digital Revolution has been enriching our lives for the past three generations, while at the same time boiling the metaphorical frogs of our economic system.

While many blame the decline of U.S. manufacturing on trade agreements, in reality, a major cause is the gain in productivity. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, productivity for the manufacturing sector almost tripled from 1990-2007 compared to 1973-1990, with the great recession slowing things back down.

The jobs that left the U.S. and Europe to lower-cost areas in China and Southeast Asia are never coming back. Instead, they are going to continue the natural progression and move on to the next cheaper stop, except it won’t be another less-developed region, but rather robotics and AI.

All of these changes are culminating in what’s coming next: the Third Industrial Revolution. It promises unimaginable advances in technology and quality of life, and at once an economy that will seem unrecognizable to anyone today — a many-orders-of-magnitude jump compared to the slow buzz of the Digital Revolution… and all within the span of one generation.

Society is busy playing tug of war with the world of the past, yet the future is going to change our reality as we know it.

As a venture investor, I have the duty and the exceptional privilege of living in the future. Along with the innovation in the way we generate, store and use energy, as I see it, these are the four transformational technology categories that will change our near-future world beyond recognition.

3D printing

There was a lot of hype around 3D printing when the technology was commercialized for crude, home-based printers that could make simple, polymer figurines. Public interest has largely moved on to other buzzwords momentarily, but the technology has continued to evolve into much more impactful and interesting areas. Commercial 3D printers (like the HP Jet Fusion family) are production-grade digital furnaces that sit next to CNC machines. The technology has surpassed the rudimentary prototype use case and is now competitive with other forms of small-batch manufacturing.

What’s coming next is a rapid increase in speed and resolution (measured in voxels), and massive leaps in material science, allowing for seamless “printing” of complete, functioning products. In a few years, you will order tennis shoes online and print them. A few years after that, you will be able to print complete electro-mechanical devices, including the batteries.

This will completely transform manufacturing and logistics to a just-in-time, just-in-place paradigm. The effect on all of the related industries will be absolutely profound.

Internet of everything

During the dot-com wave, the letter “e” was attached to everything as the internet made itself felt on most business models. In the 15 years since, we have largely accepted that electronic communication and procurement have become the standard.

Today, “IoT” is a buzzword used to describe connecting devices to the cloud. There is a certain novelty to lifestyle peripherals and personal electronics that take advantage of having instant access to all of the world’s information. In the next several years, every product will be connected to the internet and be data-driven in some way.

This will be a generational transition in all devices and drive substantial efficiency in the way many things’ problems get solved. As one example, it will largely reduce the need for human intervention in the service sector.

Immersive

After decades of hype, virtual reality has finally captured the world’s imagination. Immersive content and a new generation of games is just the beginning. Soon, VR headsets will replace computer displays and TVs as we know them. Once the display technology matures, sensors, optics and compute power catch up; AR will pick up the baton. All while new forms of human-computer interface, such as Leap Motion and a slew of voice recognition technologies, are already enhancing and will eventually replace the keyboard and mouse we’ve used for the past 50 years.

Not only does this mean that our computing devices will be more naturally integrated into our lives than carrying the pocket-size glass slabs we have adopted in the past decade, but they will quickly become our brain prosthetics. At first figuratively, but soon enough quite literally. This will certainly change the way we consume information, including how and what we learn.

Artificial intelligence

The field of artificial intelligence has been a scientific focus area since the 1950s. For decades, the approach has been one of brute force and insatiable appetite for computing power. This hasn’t yielded results and researchers have turned their focus toward whole brain emulation. In recent years, combined with the labeled data from the internet, this has given us breakthrough techniques in componentizing the proverbial brain into specialized areas — computer vision for sight, natural language processing for communication, robotics for motion and manipulation, learning for deduction, reasoning and problem solving and emotional intelligence for social interaction.

Society must realign its mission statement to the reality of what the future will bring.

Learning from nature while bypassing the physical limitations of size and speed of the human brain is bound to trigger an intelligence explosion that will transform every aspect of the world. The ultimate goal of AI is to create a machine that can emulate and surpass human cognitive and physical capabilities. Once these combined technologies fuse and reach parity with human intelligence (aka singularity), there will be a “take-off” period that may be slow (decades), medium (months) or fast (hours) until superintelligence is reached.

Where do we go from here?

Many philosophize that AI will be the last human invention. Though it is impossible to project what this will truly mean for our society, Gartner is predicting that one-third of current jobs will be taken over by software, robots and smart machines as soon as 2025.

There are more than three million Americans who today work in delivery and other driving or related jobs. With the recent advances in autonomous vehicles, it would be naïve to think that they will still be employed in 10 years. There are also more than four million retail sales people, three million cashiers and one million security guards. These, and many other professions, will all but disappear. Considering the entire U.S. labor force is fewer than 160 million people, these changes in labor demand will make the unemployment woes of 2009 feel insignificant in comparison. Now consider the effects worldwide.

While technology marches on at the pace of Moore’s Law, our governments and political systems at large are completely unprepared for these drastic changes already on the horizon. Society is busy playing tug of war with the world of the past, yet the future is going to change our reality as we know it.

The minimum education level needed to get any job not taken by a smart machine will quickly skyrocket. This has already been felt for decades in the decline of the American middle class relative incomes, all while the cost of basic needs in education, healthcare, housing and food has gone up. At the same time, companies — and the individuals at the top controlling them — are making more profit with fewer employees.

The Third Industrial Revolution is already happening. We now have a choice: Do we take advantage of technology and create an incredibly better world for the entire human race, or do we let all of the gains continue to consolidate and grow societal conflict to the breaking point? We’ve already gotten a preview of how society is responding to the growing inequities with the rise of Trump, Brexit and ISIS.

If we choose to take the collective red pill, society must realign its mission statement to the reality of what the future will bring. Beside protecting our environment and accelerating the shift to clean fuels, we need to prioritize access to education, make healthcare a human right and, yes, even seriously consider guaranteed basic income. No matter your political leanings, you can’t build a business without having customers to sell to. So if AI is going to replace an increasing number of professions, we must provide families the resources to sustain themselves in this brave new world.

While our overall social progress is encouraging, we must think about the reasons our divisions are getting more pronounced with each passing day. If we are to survive and thrive, we must be purposeful about how we prepare for a tomorrow ruled by the technology we are inventing today.

Featured Image: Westend61/Donald Iain Smith (composite)/Getty Images

via TechCrunch
Trump, Brexit and ISIS are the symptoms, and technology is the problem

Timeless tips for “simple sabotage” from the CIA

Simple Sabotage Field Manual

In 1944, the OSS (the precursor to the CIA) produced a document called the Simple Sabotage Field Manual. It was designed to be used by agents in the field to hinder our WWII adversaries. The CIA recently highlighted five tips from the manual as timelessly relevant:

1. Managers and Supervisors: To lower morale and production, be pleasant to inefficient workers; give them undeserved promotions. Discriminate against efficient workers; complain unjustly about their work.

2. Employees: Work slowly. Think of ways to increase the number of movements needed to do your job: use a light hammer instead of a heavy one; try to make a small wrench do instead of a big one.

3. Organizations and Conferences: When possible, refer all matters to committees, for "further study and consideration." Attempt to make the committees as large and bureaucratic as possible. Hold conferences when there is more critical work to be done.

4. Telephone: At office, hotel and local telephone switchboards, delay putting calls through, give out wrong numbers, cut people off "accidentally," or forget to disconnect them so that the line cannot be used again.

5. Transportation: Make train travel as inconvenient as possible for enemy personnel. Issue two tickets for the same seat on a train in order to set up an "interesting" argument.

Ha, some of these things are practically best practices in American business, not against enemies but against their employees, customers, and themselves. You can also find the manual in book or ebook format. (via @craigmod)

Tags: books   CIA   war   WWII
via kottke.org
Timeless tips for “simple sabotage” from the CIA

6 Fun iPhone Party Games for Your Next Gathering

iphone-party-games

Few things are better than playing a fun game with your friends. But a lot of party games require that you either have a console and the game or that you’ve purchased a board or card game, which you’ll need to do in advance. Fortunately, there are a number of fun party games that you can download directly to your iPhone, and many of them are free. These six will get you started; be sure to share your favorites in the comments below! Heads Up! ($0.99) If you’ve played any iPhone party game, it’s likely to have been Ellen DeGeneres’ Heads…

Read the full article: 6 Fun iPhone Party Games for Your Next Gathering

via MakeUseOf.com
6 Fun iPhone Party Games for Your Next Gathering

The best electric and gas ranges

By Tyler Wells Lynch

This post was done in partnership with The Sweethome, a buyer’s guide to the best things for your home. Read the full article here.

After 35 hours of research, we think that the Samsung NE59J7630SS is the best electric freestanding cooking range for most people. It’s a sturdy, easy-to-clean machine with true, heated-fan convection to help baked goods cook more evenly. If you’re fortunate enough to have a gas line in your home, the Frigidaire Gallery Series FGGF3058RF is probably your best bet. It’s a classic-looking range with super-solid parts and an intuitive knob-and-control-panel interface. Both ranges are solidly built—without too many extra bells and whistles—and that simplicity should help them keep running reliably for 10 to 15 years.

How we picked

After comparing specs, reading reviews, and interviewing appliance experts, we learned that the best ranges stick to a simple set of features because they’re more reliable that way. A sturdy build, an uncluttered interface, and easy-to-clean surfaces will make a range more satisfying to live with for the 10 to 15 years that you’ll have it. The only super-important cooking features you’ll need are a strong power burner for boiling big pots of water, a sensitive warming element for simmering sauces, and a convection fan for better baking.

In terms of capacity, we think an oven should have at least 5 cubic feet of space, enough room to roast a large turkey. The best cooktops have a fifth, low-heat burner that makes it easier to simmer or warm food without accidentally scorching it. These features are standard in ranges that cost more than $600, and we considered only models with those specs.

Though all ranges essentially perform the same basic job—cooking food—certain baseline specs will make that job a little easier. The stovetop should have a power burner with at least 17,000 British thermal units (gas) or 3,000 watts (electric), and a simmer element (or "warm zone") that dips down to 5,000 Btu or less (gas) or 100 watts (electric).

We were unable to test any range’s performance to gauge the real-world value of extra cooktop power. But we did consider performance data from review sites, including Reviewed.com, Consumer Reports, and CNET. Based on their findings and what we learned from experts, we don’t think performance discrepancies will make a huge difference for most cooks. That said, an extra 1,000 Btu or 300 watts will help your water boil faster, so we slightly favored models with stronger-on-paper power burners.

Our pick for an electric range

The Samsung NE59J7630SS is the best freestanding radiant electric range for most people because it has all of the important cooking and cleaning features, with relatively few bells and whistles that might cause reliability problems down the line. Its cooktop is more versatile than those of other ranges at this price, and includes a stronger power burner, a warm zone as sensitive as any other range’s, and a unique three-element burner. The oven cavity is larger than that of most other models and has a true-convection cooking mode. This range is also one of the few that offers two self-cleaning modes. This Samsung’s build is sturdy, its design looks sharp, and its control scheme is more intuitive than that of its closest competitors.

If you need a less expensive electric range, the Amana AER5630BAS is simple, effective, and affordable, with an elegant stainless steel design. The smooth cooktop includes one of the strongest power burners at a budget-friendly price (though it’s not as nuanced as that of our main electric pick).

Our pick for a gas range

If we were buying a freestanding gas range, our choice would be the Frigidaire Gallery Series FGGF3058RF. It looks great and feels sturdier than other gas ranges at this price, and it has a simpler interface and more durable components. All of the most important specs and features you should expect from a gas range are here. The 18,000-Btu power burner is as strong as any you’ll find without moving up to a pro range. The continuous, five-burner cooktop has cast iron grates that stay in place when you slide pots and pans around. And like any good range at this price, it has a convection fan.

If you need a more affordable gas range, we like the Whirlpool WFG505M0BS. It’s one of the few budget-friendly gas ranges with a five-burner cooktop and an oven larger than 5 cubic feet. The cast iron continuous grates are a nice touch, too. Unlike our main gas pick’s oven, this range’s oven doesn’t have convection or self-cleaning modes.

The best freestanding induction range

A great freestanding electric induction range for most people who want one is the Electrolux EI30IF40LS. We like its specs better than those of other models, and test labs and owners alike have given it great reviews. Ranges with induction cooktops cost more but offer performance, safety, and efficiency advantages over both gas and radiant electric models. Overall, we think the Electrolux EI30IF40LS is the best value for an induction range, thanks to its powerful and versatile cooktop, huge oven, and relatively reasonable price.

This guide may have been updated by The Sweethome. To see the current recommendation, please go here.

via Engadget
The best electric and gas ranges

‘Original Bug Shirt’ Still Rules The Insect Battle

Dave and Amy Freeman are spending a year in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in an effort to protect it from a series of sulfide-ore copper mines. This summer they had the opportunity to put the Original Bug Shirt through the ultimate North Woods test.

original bug shirt review

After more than eight bug-free months in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness (winter), summer arrived and so did the bugs. In the North Woods spring and summer are synonymous with black flies and mosquitoes, and when they’re bad the Original Bug Shirt is the ultimate defense.

I purchased my stained, tattered bug shirt many years ago for an expedition in the Amazon where the mosquitoes transmit malaria, dengue fever, and other nasty diseases. Since then, I keep the shirt in the top of my pack anywhere bugs are likely to be bad, from the Amazon to the Arctic.

Bug Shirt In The North Woods

My wife, Amy, and I donned our Original Bug Shirts for the first time in early June when the mosquitoes started to swarm.

bug shirt

We’d kept our bug shirts ready as the ice thawed. When we landed at the portage between Kiskadinna and Muskeg Lakes in spring, we were greeted by a thick wall of black flies and mosquitoes. Swatting and waving our arms, we dug into our day pack and slipped the bug shirts over our heads.

bug shirt mesh

For June, July, and August, we kept our bug shirts at the ready while exploring more than 300 lakes and streams. They have become our go-to defense when bugs get thick.

BWCA: An Ultimate Bug Shirt Test

The Original Bug Shirts stand out from the competition. They are made of a mixture of mosquito netting along the torso and under arms, and a lightweight yet bug-proof material everywhere else.

A bug shirt like this is a mechanical barrier to biting insects. It’s another tool in the box, and is a nice alternative to chemical deterrents when bugs get really bad.

mosquito facts
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The beauty of this design is that where the shirt is likely to press tightly against skin is made of nylon material that bugs can’t bite through. Areas that normally are not pressed against the skin are mesh to keep you cool.

bug shirt test

A large hood with mosquito netting can zip closed to fully protect the face, or remain open when the bugs aren’t too bad. Elastic draw cords at the waist and wrists keep bugs from crawling under your shirt.

bug shirt cuff

If the bugs are really bad at meal time, we like to pull our arms into the main body of the bug shirt so that we can hold our bowl inside the shirt and eat in a totally bug free environment.

Shirt For A Buggy World

Ideally you’d never need a shirt like this, but bugs are everywhere. If you are headed into an especially buggy corner of the world, do yourself a favor and bring an Original Bug Shirt.

The only downside is that both Amy and I have ripped the mosquito netting close to our waists either by carrying portage packs with hip belts, or by wearing PFDs over the Bug Shirts. It wasn’t a big deal to repair them, but I’d love to see a version with the nylon material five inches up from the base shirt instead of the bug mesh on the sides.

bug shirt hood

—Dave and Amy Freeman are spending a year in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in an effort to protect the Boundary Waters from a series of sulfide-ore  copper mines that are proposed along the edge of our nation’s most popular Wilderness. Throughout their Year in the Wilderness they are sharing regular reviews on GearJunkie.com. Amy and Dave were named National Geographic Adventurers of the Year in 2014.

The post ‘Original Bug Shirt’ Still Rules The Insect Battle appeared first on GearJunkie.


via GearJunkie
‘Original Bug Shirt’ Still Rules The Insect Battle

Kylo Ren Loses It While Watching the Rogue One Trailer

You’d think Kylo Ren would be happy to see his grandfather once again on the big screen, but that’s not the case in his latest reaction video to the new Rogue One trailer.

The video was created by the Auralnauts over on YouTube, who already have riffed on our misunderstood villain in other videos. So far, the group has done a pretty good job, perfectly merging Adam Driver’s deadpan delivery in both the actual Star Wars film and in his Undercover Boss turn from Saturday Night Live earlier this year.

Ren focuses on what you’d expect—the Death Star (“this is what power looks like. Angles, and spheres, and… windows.”), Donnie Yen, who strikes well with a large stick, and the battle at Hoth.

Of course, when we get the Darth Vader cameo, he goes a bit ballistic, but in typical Kylo Ren fashion. It’s what you’d expect, but it’s still a fun time. It at least shows off my favorite interpretation of Kylo, which highlights his awkwardness of being in a leader position and his bottling up of feelings.

[One Perfect Shot]

via Gizmodo
Kylo Ren Loses It While Watching the Rogue One Trailer

Watch a Guy Transform an Old Glass Bottle into a Sharp Arrowhead


GIF

Junkyard flint knapping is my new favorite thing because it takes a piece of trash and recycles it into something else entirely with just a few taps (okay, more than a few taps). But watch Shawn Woods find an old bottle and then reshape it with tools that consist of an antler, a screw, and like a needle thing. He just keeps striking it over and over and eventually brings out a beautiful glass arrow.

via Gizmodo
Watch a Guy Transform an Old Glass Bottle into a Sharp Arrowhead

Innovaccer raises $15.6M to give businesses one stop for all their data

Abhinav Shashank was working on an academic project at Harvard — figuring out how to pool together large data sets from hundreds of different sources and APIs and manage them — when his business colleagues started asking him to help apply those tools.

The result was Innovaccer, a set of software that mashes together data from different enterprise sources and online data sets (ranging from Oracle data, SQL databases to social media feeds) to bring together a large database where companies can build application layers. That technology has seen applications ranging from health care to media, but the core remains the same: getting all the relevant data in one place where businesses can divine the information they need to best operate.

To do that, Innovaccer has raised $15.6 million led by Westbridge Capital Partners, with participation from Lightspeed Ventures. The goal is basically to provide businesses with a white-labeled tool to apply high-level data analysis of large sets of data pulled from multiple different sources. With the right approach, firms can build tools to point that activity in pretty much any direction they want.

“The core platform remains the same, which is basically the integration, the data management layer and the dashboard,” Shashank said. “You don’t end up using iOS or Android, you end up using Gmail and Uber. From an application layer standpoint there are a few changes you need to do from what media wants to measure to what a healthcare wants to measure, versus what a bunch of other companies want to measure.”

Keeping an advantage is going to be a race against time. Innovaccer has to ensure it can very quickly onboard new data integrations and provide easy tools to apply new kinds of applications on top of them. If not, it’ll just be another piece of software in the stack that will collect dust in the corner while firms stick with more reliable, typical suppliers of this kind of technology.

The company has already seen applications in various fields like health care, where pooling data from multiple sources allows firms to create tools like electronic health records systems and a comprehensive patient overview. Innovaccer’s goal is to create a central piece of technology that can be morphed into something that’s industry-specific, while still constantly being improved by adding new sources of data.

In the case of health care, Innovaccer can pull information from the billing systems, claims systems and other pools of information it supports to put together an overview for a patient. Those data sources may be particularly useful for various industries, but the point is to ensure that at some point companies aren’t required to individually bring in information from discrete sources and just rely on software to do that.

There is plenty of competition for tools like this. There are many applications that focus on those specific industries — like electronic medial record systems in health care, for example — and other companies that provide high-level analytics like Palantir or IBM. Innovaccer’s challenge will be to ensure that it can prove it has enough core data to justify getting firms to build application layers on top of it, and that the data they have is more valuable and more useful than what businesses might find in other services.

via TechCrunch
Innovaccer raises $15.6M to give businesses one stop for all their data