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Fordow Damage Assessment

http://img.youtube.com/vi/CjQO6XH67fU/0.jpg

Suchomimus has a video up on the U.S. strike on Fordow:

  • “We have satellite imagery now confirming the US strike on Fordow nuclear enrichment facility.”
  • “I have two images for you. This first one shows two areas hit as shown by the orange circle. You can see three holes highlighting the bottom one and three in the top. So these are very accurate and precise strikes by the US Air Force, landing three bombs each around each target area.”
  • “Now the type of bomb used here penetrates deep underground before detonating. So whilst the image may not look like much damage has [been] caused, that won’t be the case, because these would have penetrated deep. And if we reach the complex below, then this facility is going to be in a pretty bad way.”
  • “This second image shows us the strikes hit the ridge line. This is important because this little schematic here shows what’s underneath this area. So you can see that this area is the hub of the facility. This graphic video was shared by Iran until a few years ago, and it shows this enrichment facility. So you can see that in the are that was targeted we have the uranium storage a pair of IR6 and then six IR1 cascade centrifuges.”
  • “American intelligence and other sources online are saying that this facility is destroyed and that the strike was successful and penetrated it.”
  • “We have the entry points highlighted. Here on the right the land caved inwards post strike, and at the bottom the tunnel entrances sealed with dirt.” The latter evidently done by the Iranians.
  • Before the strike, video shows Iranian trucks lined up at the complex entrance. But the trucks look like open-roofed earth moving vehicles, not equipment transport vehicles. These were apparently used to cover the entrances with dirt.
  • However, there were a couple more specialized vehicles that may have been used to remove enriched uranium from the site.
  • “I can’t see everything important being evacuated in a couple of days. There’s bound to have been some equipment, some important equipment, left in here. The centrifuges, for example, can feasibly be dismantled and removed by truck, but is tricky to do, because of a base’s depth and will take time. And I think it’s unlikely Iran would have had enough time to do so. But Reuters does say that the enriched uranium had already been removed.”

    • Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says that initial battle damage assessment showed “all of our precision munitions struck where we wanted them to strike and had the desired effect, which means, especially in Fordow, which was the primary target here, we believe we achieved destruction of capabilities there.”

    More:

    B-2 Spirit bombers dropped a total of 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, on two of the Iranian nuclear facility sites struck this weekend as part of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” Air Force Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Sunday.

    President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the U.S. military had attacked three facilities involved with Iran’s nuclear program at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.

    The mission marked the first operational use of the 30,000-pound MOP, the largest B-2 bomber strike in history, and the second-longest B-2 mission ever flown, Caine said during a Pentagon news conference. In order to deceive the Iranians, a number of B-2s flew west as decoys prior to the strike, he said.

    Snip.

    Defense officials showed reporters a graphic during Sunday’s news conference that indicated that seven B-2 bombers took part in the strikes.

    A total of 125 aircraft were involved in the mission, including fighters and aerial refuelers, Caine said. The bombers and fighters dropped about 75 precision-guided munitions on two of the sites, and a Navy submarine fired Tomahawk missiles at a third.

    Possibly more later.

    Update: A more detailed Suchomimus damage assessment video:

    I had heard chatter about using a ventilation shaft to hit the facility, because surely the Iranians wouldn’t be so stupid as to to use a vertical shaft that leads directly to the bunker complex rather than a horizontal one. But that seems to be the case.

    Plus damage details for the Natanz and Isfahan sites. At least some of the 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators seem to have targeted Natanz, with the Tomahawks hitting Isfahan.

    Also, U.S. graphics suggest the B-2s were actually flown from Whitman Airbase in Missouri, rather than Diego Garcia, as previously reported. Maybe that too was deception.

    Update 2 via Ed Dirscoll at Instapundit: Israel seems to think that the 60% enriched Uranium was at Natanz and Isfahan, which was hit in the strike, and now they have no way to get it to 90%.

    Update 3 via Charlie Martin at Instapundit: Ex-spy Aimen Dean doesn’t buy the “they dismantled everything” narrative:

    1. Real-Time Monitoring by the IAEA:
    Both Fordow and Natanz are under partial surveillance by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran has restricted access in recent years, many of the monitoring systems – especially CCTV cameras – were active in the past and still provided some insight until at least early 2023. In several cases, the IAEA retained knowledge of infrastructure layouts and could remotely detect large-scale activity, especially if dismantling or evacuation were attempted.

    2. The Myth of Rapid Evacuation:
    This isn’t a warehouse full of sacks of potatoes. We’re talking about highly specialized, sensitive equipment, thousands of IR-1 and advanced IR-2m and IR-6 centrifuges. For context:
    •Natanz had an estimated 15,000–20,000 centrifuges at peak capacity. Even after the JCPOA, thousands remained in use or storage.
    •Fordow, while smaller, housed over 1,000 advanced centrifuges, some enriching uranium up to 60% purity in recent years.

    These are not items that can be boxed up and trucked out overnight. Dismantling a single cascade (a chain of 164 centrifuges) safely requires days of work, if not longer. Multiply that by hundreds of cascades, and you quickly realize this isn’t a quick getaway.

    Additionally, centrifuges are connected to high-pressure uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) lines. Improper disassembly can lead to contamination, equipment damage, or worse, leaks of radioactive gas. Such evacuations would require weeks of preparation under controlled conditions.

    3. Eyes in the Sky and on the Ground:
    Let’s not forget that the U.S. and Israel have had persistent, layered surveillance over these sites for years, satellites, high-altitude drones, SIGINT, HUMINT. Every inch of ground around Fordow and Natanz has been watched for telltale signs of activity. The idea that Iran stealthily evacuated multiple facilities without being detected is simply ludicrous.

    4. Propaganda to Salvage Prestige:
    This entire narrative is damage control, plain and simple. The regime knows its core scientific and strategic assets were hit. They can’t admit it, so they spin: “We were too smart for them. Nothing of value was lost.” But it’s hollow bravado, masking what is in reality a colossal strategic failure – yet another one – in a long line of catastrophic blunders by a leadership that has brought nothing but ruin to a once-proud civilization.

    Lawrence Person’s BattleSwarm Blog